While the UK government’s anti-immigration rhetoric may soften after the Green Party upset the odds to claim a high-profile by-election victory, universities shouldn’t expect major U-turns on student visas or debt, political experts have warned.��

Last week, the Greens won the Gorton and Denton seat from Labour, who came in third, behind right-wing party Reform UK.��

The defeat has stoked fears in Labour that it has lost the support of progressive voters, with some believing the government has been too tough on immigration as it has attempted to compete with Reform.��The Green Party is now  nationally behind Reform, according to recent figures.

As a result, “there will be a fair amount of pressure from Labour backbenchers – and some frontbenchers – to soften the government’s performatively hardline rhetoric on migration on the grounds that it’s been one of the factors that has driven left-liberal voters to the Greens,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.

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International students have been in the government’s firing line since it came to power two years ago as it attempts to reduce both legal and illegal migration levels.��

Heather Rolfe, senior research fellow at British Future, said the Gorton result may have been a “wake-up call” for Labour.�� 

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“When you look at immigration attitudes, you find that actually the views of Labour supporters…are quite close to Green policy and certainly Green voters and Labour voters actually are very similar in their preferences around immigration, and very distinct from Reform,” she continued.��

“Labour does need to look across the board at its immigration policies because I think it’s losing support because of its stance on all those issues.”

However, both Bale and Rolfe were sceptical that international students would benefit much from a softer stance.

“I doubt there will be much significant policy change,” said Bale. “The public as a whole wants more rather than less restriction – and even though polling suggests voters are more favourably inclined to students, that probably doesn’t include welcoming their dependants.”

The government appears to have doubled down on its anti-immigration stance in recent days, announcing new restrictions on asylum seekers.��

This included a ban on nationals from four countries – Afghanistan, Sudan, Myanmar and Cameroon – applying for study visas, after students who had come to the UK from these countries were linked to high rates of asylum claims.

Rolfe suggested this approach may chime with voters’ perceptions of immigration. “While the public is supportive of international students, I think they wouldn’t be of people who are coming on one visa with the purpose of then transferring to another.”

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Diana Beech, director of the Finsbury Institute at City St George’s, University of London, agreed that while ministers may “soften the tone” on student migration in the wake of the election, “that doesn’t mean policy will soften”.

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“The clampdown on dependants, higher financial thresholds and tougher English‑language requirements are unlikely to be undone, especially if Reform UK makes gains in the Scottish, Welsh and local elections in May,” she continued.��

Beech added that as the general election draws nearer, “the pressure to ‘look tough’ on migration will only grow”. She said the graduate route – which Labour reduced from two years to 18 months, but stopped short of cutting completely – “could easily be back in the firing line within 18 months”.

Rolfe added that the government should “be careful” with the graduate visa, as research suggests it is broadly popular with the public, with many believing that international students remaining in the country “would be good for the UK”.��

Recent polling also suggests the Greens are the most popular party among young people, including 49 per cent of those aged 18 to 24, and 27 per cent of those aged 25 to 49.

The government has been under pressure to do more to support young people, including graduates with Plan 2 student loans who face spiralling levels of debt.��

While ministers have pledged to tackle the issue, it is unclear how far they are prepared to go given the tight constraints on government spending.��

“If Labour is to appeal to students and younger voters, then it’ll be on the question of loans – not least because that group not only includes those who are currently over 18 but those aged 14…and above who are likely to be on the electoral register for an election in two or three years’ time,” said Bale.��

“But given Reeves’ obsession with reducing borrowing and her fiscal rules, and her belief that those who don’t go into higher education shouldn’t be expected to cough up for those who do, I wouldn’t expect a truly game-changing announcement on that front either – unless, of course, Starmer goes and Reeves is replaced by someone rather more daring.”

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helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com